Greg's future of the Internet
signs of the times
Greg's diary
Photo index
Greg's home page
Network link stats
Greg's other links
Copyright information
Groogle
Work in progress
Work in progress

In February and March 2014 I participated in a Coursera course about the history of the Internet. One of the assignments was an essay on what the Internet might be like in 20 years' time. This page complements it: it's a list of occurrences confirming (or potentially contradicting) my predictions.

27 July 2015

Woolworths are offering a pickup service for purchases on eBay. That makes sense for everybody.

21 March 2016

There are a surprising number of shops for lease in Sturt Street, the main shopping area of Ballarat.

6 April 2017

The Washington Post reports the demise of another retailer, Payless Shoes, which also (still) has an net presence in Australia, though it seems that it has closed down too. But at the same time it makes it clear that big retailers are also feeling the pinch.

19 April 2017

Two identical paper mail letters today, from ANZ bank: they're closing their Sebastopol branch due to lack of interest, “Internet banking” being the stated culprit.

3 January 2018

Today the Washington Post reported reported the shutdown of the last department store in Hermitage, PA. Hermitage has a population of about 15,000, and the nearest larger town is at least 50 km away. This will probably kill off the Shenango Valley Mall as well.

In passing, it's notable that the mall web site is at least 9 months out of date: it lists all three department stores that were there until March 2017, when Sears and Macy's closed down. Wouldn't you be happy if you went to a mall looking for one of three department stores, and found none at all?

9 January 2018

Down through a shopping street in Geelong for the first time in a while. It showed the signs of the times: many unoccupied shops, including an entire arcade. Those shops that were occupied seemed to be hairdressers or restaurants, though there was one shop for bridal equipment. Admittedly, in my paper I didn't think specifically of hairdressers, but it matches my expectations.

15 February 2018

Another sign of the times: the ANZ bank closed down its Sebastopol branch a few months ago, but left the ATM outside in operation, as this photo from Google maps shows:


This should be ANZ-before.png.  Is it missing?
Image title: ANZ before          Dimensions:          827 x 736, 574 kB
Make a single page with this image Hide this image
Make this image a thumbnail Make thumbnails of all images on this page
Make this image small again Display small version of all images on this page
All images taken on Thursday, 15 February 2018, thumbnails          All images taken on Thursday, 15 February 2018, small
Diary entry for Thursday, 15 February 2018 Complete exposure details

 

No more:


This should be ANZ-ATM.jpeg.  Is it missing?
Image title: ANZ ATM          Dimensions:          4108 x 3024, 2657 kB Display location on map
Make a single page with this image Hide this image
Make this image a thumbnail Make thumbnails of all images on this page
Make this image small again Display small version of all images on this page
All images taken on Thursday, 15 February 2018, thumbnails          All images taken on Thursday, 15 February 2018, small
Diary entry for Thursday, 15 February 2018 Complete exposure details

 

I can understand shutting down branches; that matches my predictions. But why remove the ATM? That doesn't match the expectations in my paper. Possibly it's a matter of property ownership, and they're planning a new ATM somewhere nearby. But why no sign to tell people what has happened, what is going to happen, and where the next ANZ ATM is? That smacks of stupidity.

15 March 2018

I walked down Bridge Mall, the main shopping area in Ballarat. The place was nearly deserted, and in one area I saw three different shops for lease:


This should be Bridge-Mall.jpeg.  Is it missing?
Image title: Bridge Mall          Dimensions:          7849 x 1853, 5211 kB
Make a single page with this image Hide this image
Make this image a thumbnail Make thumbnails of all images on this page
Make this image small again Display small version of all images on this page
All images taken on Thursday, 15 March 2018, thumbnails          All images taken on Thursday, 15 March 2018, small
Diary entry for Thursday, 15 March 2018 Complete exposure details

 

21 March 2018

In the essay, I wasn't sure about social networks (now called social media). I wrote:

How important will social networks be? Will they reach a plateau or even decline? Or will they continue to grow and form a significant part of social life?

The recent Facebook has been Cambridge Analytica breach may just be the tip of the iceberg. But Statista has done a statistic on public attitudes:

They, too, are looking into the future. It's also interesting that Amazon and Google are also perceived as net negative.

6 July 2018

Seen in the mail today (https://www.statista.com/chart/14559/americans-favorite-tv-platforms/):

Even now, terrestrial broadcast TV only accounts for about 18% of TV viewing in the USA. The rest is delivered mainly by some kind of network connection, either Internet or cable.

That's one of the things I predicted:

Radio and TV broadcasts will gradually cease. They are costly: they use a lot of power, and that transmission and reception equipment are also expensive. Even now it is possible to receive TV via the Internet: a recent report found that in Western countries, 90% of Internet users watched online video. Significant investment in net backbones will be required to deliver the content, but it will still be cheaper than maintaining current transmission equipment. This change in the distribution method will also allow video on demand to take the place of fixed broadcasts.

I didn't know about Netflix then, and I'm surprised how quickly it has taken the lead. But how long will it be before cable and terrestrial broadcast cease altogether? The difference in the usage of the 18-34 age group (then to be 34-50) suggests that it won't take long. I think I'm in good shape for my prediction to come true.


Greg's home page Greg's diary Greg's photos Copyright

Valid XHTML 1.0!

$Id: Internet-signs-of-the-times.php,v 1.8 2018/07/07 04:09:27 grog Exp grog $